Tuesday, October 27, 2009

World Series Preview

At the start of this MLB season a friend of mine and I predicted World Series matchups and bet 50 bucks on each team that made it to the World Series and 100 bucks on the winner. I predicted a Phillies-Red Sox final with the Phillies winning in 7 games and he picked a Yankees-Dodgers finale with the Yanks winning in 6 games. My Red Sox were downright awful this postseason and got beat by the better team in the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and I placed all my hopes on the Angels to make it out of the ALCS as the winner but sadly it was not to be and I lost 50 bucks. However the Phillies did make it out of the NL to the World Series beating the LA Dodgers so I gained those 50 bucks back. Now it’s down to the Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Yankees. The Phillies were my pick from the start of the season to win ‘cause they won the world Series last year and as their team was pretty much unchanged I felt they were the best team in baseball even over my beloved BoSox. However, the Yanks came in with a $200 million-plus payroll in its inaugural year in its $1.3 billion stadium built for one purpose; to win the World Series at all costs and quickly showed their dominance in the American League as they ended with the best record in baseball with 103 wins.

This year, for the first time in many years (at least since 1999, when the defending-champ Yankees met the 103-win Atlanta Braves in the World Series) the two best teams in baseball will play for a championship. This is the World Series everyone who cares about baseball has been waiting for: a National League team that plays with an American League swagger, playing to defend the championship it won last year, against a team that has won so much in its storied history that they consider the World Series its hereditary title. Both teams have dominated in the postseason and neither team has been challenged this postseason the way they will challenge each other during the coming week.

The Yankees defeated the Angels in six games with a power attack that was led by Alex Rodriguez who hit as many homers (three) as the entire Angels team!! No Yanks starting pitcher has lost a game this postseason and their ace, CC Sabathia, proved to be not only good, but worth every penny of his much deserved contract, and was the difference-maker for a Yankees club that in recent years has thrown too much inferior pitching in too many big games. He was subsequently named the American League Championship Series' Most Valuable Player, after posting an ERA of 1.13, pitching eight innings in each start in his two wins. The Yankees pressured Anaheim to such a smothering degree that the Angels (the team whose signature for the past decade has been forcing mistakes) committed so many unforced errors on the base paths and in the field that this winter for them will not pass quietly for them.

Torii Hunter perhaps summed it up best, "We battled, but we couldn't beat that payroll. Plus, in the eighth, we gave it away. You've got CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, who's got some of the nastiest stuff in the league. And behind that, you got Andy Pettitte, who's got more playoff experience than anyone. They're the best. We got beat by the best team. I'm rooting for the Yankees so I can say we got beat by the team that won the World Series."

Meanwhile, the Dodgers who had home-field advantage and the best pitching staff during the regular season, could not do it in the NLCS. It was the Phillies who won at every critical juncture. The Angels were doomed against the Yanks because of their inability to change the score with one swing, while the Dodgers lost both because the Phillies seemed to have an answer for each Dodgers rally, and in the most critical of games (game 3 especially) the Dodgers could not match Philadelphia's starting-pitching advantage. The Phillies threw Cliff Lee, a proven ace and Cy Young winner, in the 11-0 Game 3 Phillies rout against the Dodgers’ Hiroki Kuroda, a middle-to-back-end rotation pitcher who hadn't pitched since Sept. 28. The Phillies hit 10 home runs by six different players in the NLCS against the Dodgers. They hit .231 for the series (27 points lower than during the regular season) but scored at least eight runs in three of the five games. The Dodgers won two more games than the Phillies this season, but at no point during the season could they be favoured to beat Philly, especially not after the Phillies pulled off the deal of the summer in acquiring Lee from Cleveland for much less than they would have for Roy Halladay. The Phillies ranked first in the National League in home runs, runs scored, slugging percentage, total bases, doubles and stolen-base percentage. They were second in OPS, stolen bases and at-bats.

Above the numbers, the Phillies play a blue-collar, championship style of baseball, capable of raucous and devastating comebacks (just ask Rockies closer Huston Street, who was victimized for losses in the final two games of the NLDS). Third baseman Pedro Feliz had just two hits in the NLCS, but one was a killing home run in game 5. Jayson Werth had four hits against the Dodgers, but three were home runs. Jimmy Rollins hit a dismal .227 against the Dodgers, but when it has mattered most this postseason, whether against the Rockies or Dodgers, it has been Rollins sparking a rally.

Bottom line is that the Phillies know how to win. During the past two postseasons, the Phillies have played five series. They have won all five and have not trailed any of them in games, winning the opener in each. In three best-of-seven series during the past two seasons (two against the Dodgers, one against Tampa Bay in the World Series) the Phillies haven't even been challenged, winning each in five games.

However, it was against the Yankees back in May (Phils won series 2-1) when Brad Lidge's problems reached the concern level. He was dreadful this season after being the best in the business during the Phillies' title run last year. But late against the Rockies in the NLDS and in the NLCS, Lidge rediscovered himself and joined Mariano Rivera as the only closers not to cost their teams this postseason. Indeed, virtually all else being equal between these two powerhouses, Lidge is the veritable X factor at the end of games. It is the only area in which the Yankees have a decided advantage and very well could be the difference in the series.

Ryan Howard is every bit the threat of Alex Rodriguez in run-producing situations if not more, and of the position players, the Yankees have the clear advantage at third base and DH while the Phillies have the clear advantage in RF, CF, and LF. The Yankees can run, and so can the Phillies. The Yankees have ace pitching, as do the Phillies. The Yankees have Rivera, but neither bullpen is infallible and if Lidge continues as he has the Phillies don’t have to worry as much in the 9th inning.

There are many interesting stories with this series as well, Pedro Martinez (my favourite pitcher of all time) pitches once again against the Yanks in a pressure situation; Lee and Sabathia, the two former Cleveland aces, pitch against each other instead of as the 1-2 combo of a pitching rotation as they once did. Two homer-friendly ballparks not necessarily favouring either home team will provide the stage, and two rabid fan bases providing the acoustics. And there will be no shortage of stars: Cy Young winners Martinez, Lee and Sabathia; World Series MVPs Rivera, Cole Hamels and Derek Jeter; and regular-season MVPs A-Rod, Howard and Rollins. If the World Series has been something of a dud this decade (three of the past five Series have been four-game sweeps and none has gone beyond five games and hasn't reached a Game 7 since the Angels beat the Giants in 2002) the Phillies and Yankees matchup looks to provide the antidote for baseball fans across the globe. I still believe the Phillies will win as I did back in April. Hopefully this series goes the distance and my wallet is a little heavier when it’s all said and done and the Phillies repeat as champions.

Peace and Much Love To Ya (except to all the Yankees fans like Franny) :P

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