Tuesday, October 27, 2009

World Series Preview

At the start of this MLB season a friend of mine and I predicted World Series matchups and bet 50 bucks on each team that made it to the World Series and 100 bucks on the winner. I predicted a Phillies-Red Sox final with the Phillies winning in 7 games and he picked a Yankees-Dodgers finale with the Yanks winning in 6 games. My Red Sox were downright awful this postseason and got beat by the better team in the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and I placed all my hopes on the Angels to make it out of the ALCS as the winner but sadly it was not to be and I lost 50 bucks. However the Phillies did make it out of the NL to the World Series beating the LA Dodgers so I gained those 50 bucks back. Now it’s down to the Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Yankees. The Phillies were my pick from the start of the season to win ‘cause they won the world Series last year and as their team was pretty much unchanged I felt they were the best team in baseball even over my beloved BoSox. However, the Yanks came in with a $200 million-plus payroll in its inaugural year in its $1.3 billion stadium built for one purpose; to win the World Series at all costs and quickly showed their dominance in the American League as they ended with the best record in baseball with 103 wins.

This year, for the first time in many years (at least since 1999, when the defending-champ Yankees met the 103-win Atlanta Braves in the World Series) the two best teams in baseball will play for a championship. This is the World Series everyone who cares about baseball has been waiting for: a National League team that plays with an American League swagger, playing to defend the championship it won last year, against a team that has won so much in its storied history that they consider the World Series its hereditary title. Both teams have dominated in the postseason and neither team has been challenged this postseason the way they will challenge each other during the coming week.

The Yankees defeated the Angels in six games with a power attack that was led by Alex Rodriguez who hit as many homers (three) as the entire Angels team!! No Yanks starting pitcher has lost a game this postseason and their ace, CC Sabathia, proved to be not only good, but worth every penny of his much deserved contract, and was the difference-maker for a Yankees club that in recent years has thrown too much inferior pitching in too many big games. He was subsequently named the American League Championship Series' Most Valuable Player, after posting an ERA of 1.13, pitching eight innings in each start in his two wins. The Yankees pressured Anaheim to such a smothering degree that the Angels (the team whose signature for the past decade has been forcing mistakes) committed so many unforced errors on the base paths and in the field that this winter for them will not pass quietly for them.

Torii Hunter perhaps summed it up best, "We battled, but we couldn't beat that payroll. Plus, in the eighth, we gave it away. You've got CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, who's got some of the nastiest stuff in the league. And behind that, you got Andy Pettitte, who's got more playoff experience than anyone. They're the best. We got beat by the best team. I'm rooting for the Yankees so I can say we got beat by the team that won the World Series."

Meanwhile, the Dodgers who had home-field advantage and the best pitching staff during the regular season, could not do it in the NLCS. It was the Phillies who won at every critical juncture. The Angels were doomed against the Yanks because of their inability to change the score with one swing, while the Dodgers lost both because the Phillies seemed to have an answer for each Dodgers rally, and in the most critical of games (game 3 especially) the Dodgers could not match Philadelphia's starting-pitching advantage. The Phillies threw Cliff Lee, a proven ace and Cy Young winner, in the 11-0 Game 3 Phillies rout against the Dodgers’ Hiroki Kuroda, a middle-to-back-end rotation pitcher who hadn't pitched since Sept. 28. The Phillies hit 10 home runs by six different players in the NLCS against the Dodgers. They hit .231 for the series (27 points lower than during the regular season) but scored at least eight runs in three of the five games. The Dodgers won two more games than the Phillies this season, but at no point during the season could they be favoured to beat Philly, especially not after the Phillies pulled off the deal of the summer in acquiring Lee from Cleveland for much less than they would have for Roy Halladay. The Phillies ranked first in the National League in home runs, runs scored, slugging percentage, total bases, doubles and stolen-base percentage. They were second in OPS, stolen bases and at-bats.

Above the numbers, the Phillies play a blue-collar, championship style of baseball, capable of raucous and devastating comebacks (just ask Rockies closer Huston Street, who was victimized for losses in the final two games of the NLDS). Third baseman Pedro Feliz had just two hits in the NLCS, but one was a killing home run in game 5. Jayson Werth had four hits against the Dodgers, but three were home runs. Jimmy Rollins hit a dismal .227 against the Dodgers, but when it has mattered most this postseason, whether against the Rockies or Dodgers, it has been Rollins sparking a rally.

Bottom line is that the Phillies know how to win. During the past two postseasons, the Phillies have played five series. They have won all five and have not trailed any of them in games, winning the opener in each. In three best-of-seven series during the past two seasons (two against the Dodgers, one against Tampa Bay in the World Series) the Phillies haven't even been challenged, winning each in five games.

However, it was against the Yankees back in May (Phils won series 2-1) when Brad Lidge's problems reached the concern level. He was dreadful this season after being the best in the business during the Phillies' title run last year. But late against the Rockies in the NLDS and in the NLCS, Lidge rediscovered himself and joined Mariano Rivera as the only closers not to cost their teams this postseason. Indeed, virtually all else being equal between these two powerhouses, Lidge is the veritable X factor at the end of games. It is the only area in which the Yankees have a decided advantage and very well could be the difference in the series.

Ryan Howard is every bit the threat of Alex Rodriguez in run-producing situations if not more, and of the position players, the Yankees have the clear advantage at third base and DH while the Phillies have the clear advantage in RF, CF, and LF. The Yankees can run, and so can the Phillies. The Yankees have ace pitching, as do the Phillies. The Yankees have Rivera, but neither bullpen is infallible and if Lidge continues as he has the Phillies don’t have to worry as much in the 9th inning.

There are many interesting stories with this series as well, Pedro Martinez (my favourite pitcher of all time) pitches once again against the Yanks in a pressure situation; Lee and Sabathia, the two former Cleveland aces, pitch against each other instead of as the 1-2 combo of a pitching rotation as they once did. Two homer-friendly ballparks not necessarily favouring either home team will provide the stage, and two rabid fan bases providing the acoustics. And there will be no shortage of stars: Cy Young winners Martinez, Lee and Sabathia; World Series MVPs Rivera, Cole Hamels and Derek Jeter; and regular-season MVPs A-Rod, Howard and Rollins. If the World Series has been something of a dud this decade (three of the past five Series have been four-game sweeps and none has gone beyond five games and hasn't reached a Game 7 since the Angels beat the Giants in 2002) the Phillies and Yankees matchup looks to provide the antidote for baseball fans across the globe. I still believe the Phillies will win as I did back in April. Hopefully this series goes the distance and my wallet is a little heavier when it’s all said and done and the Phillies repeat as champions.

Peace and Much Love To Ya (except to all the Yankees fans like Franny) :P

Sunday, October 25, 2009

And the winner is...

...The New York Yankees! Did you ever have any doubts? I sure didn't! Doesn't mean I wasn't nervous the entire time. The Yankees beat the Angels in Game 6 of the ALCS with a final score of 5-2 to win their 40th pennant. It's been 6 long years since the Yankees have stepped into the World Series and much has changed, but what hasn't is that they're in it to win it, and anything short of that is failure (I may be paraphrasing El Capitano here).

I must admit, I'M FREAKING EXCITED! Get ready Phillies cuz the Yankees are not going to hold any punches. CC, AJ, Pet, and then CC again is just the winning combination. Be scared, very scared!

"New York, New York" and "Empire State of Mind" is on constant repeat in my head and I wouldn't have it any other way =)

- Franny.

PS Sorry bout your Angels JabberWocky, maybe you'll have better luck with the Phillies! But I sure hope not =)

Thursday, October 15, 2009

Bleeding Blue.

This is a (less factual) counter-post to JabberWocky's preview of the ALCS.

I choose the New York Yankees to win the ALCS (and WS) for the following reasons:

THEY ARE THE BEST.

Besides having the best record not only in the American League but in the entire MLB during the regular season (yes, it does matter even in the post-season!), they are the most stacked. Stacked with horses and other big and strong animals. There's a good balance of youngins and veterans that make for a deadly--and winning--combination.

Everyone is freaking out about CC pitching on short rest and even the great KO has expressed his distaste towards Girardi's choice. My take? CC is a freaking horse! A really big horse that can keep going and going and going (well a horse or the energizer bunny). I don't want him to wear out his arm because even a horse needs to change its hooves once in awhile (I really don't know where I'm going with this metaphor so I'll stop). Let CC pitch an amazing 6 innings in Game 1, and give him another 5-6 in Game 4, and the bullpen will take care of the rest.

The alternative? Joba or Gaudin. Joba has been amazing in the bullpen and honestly this is the only compliment I've ever given (or will give) Joba. Gaudin is decent, but letting him have Game 4? I really don't want a Game 5 so I'm putting my foot down on that one.

I'm well aware that the Yankees and the Angels are quite evenly matched (as shown during the season), that is why I prayed that the Red Sox would take care of them--and they let me down *sigh* But fear not! The Yankees will prevail, you want to know why? (Re-read the words in CAPS). That reason and because I toasted the baseball gods to shine on the Yankees.

Ok here's a few more reasons for those of you who are fans of reason.

Derek Jeter (Captain Clutch. 'Nuff said.)
Johnny Damon (If he learns to swing again)
Mark Teixeira (His smile will blind his opponents)
Alex Rodriguez (SHE is not the reason why he's awesome kay)
Hideki Matsui (GODZILLAAAA)
Jorge Posada (Hip hip, Jorge! Hip hip, Jorge!)
Robinson Cano (Kinda reminds me of TI, don't know why)
Nick Swisher (I don't care if he doesn't swing, he makes everyone smile)
Melky Cabrera (He's clutch in his own way, LECHE!)
CC Sabathia (Everyone says he's a horse...in more ways than one)
A.J. Burnett (I want some of that pie)
Andy Pettitte (He's just so gosh darn solid and rocking the shadow)

I really apologize to the Yankees fans who were hoping my post would totally shoot down everything JabberWocky stated in his post, but I don't have time to do the research I'm sorry! All I can say is that New York is destined for a ring this year, and it ain't going to be the Mets, so, through my philosophy skills, it must be the Yankees.

ALCS starts tomorrow folks! Don't forget to watch and cheer for them Yankees! You'll know my level of joy if in my next post I say things like "El Capitan" "An A-bomb from A-Rod" "Tex-Message" and/or "Swishalicious". Enjoy! (except for JabberWocky, he won't enjoy this series at all).

- Franny.

ALCS Preview; I Pick The Angels :)

Okay so the baseball playoffs are moving along very quickly and I was too busy studying to write the ALDS previews I had planned So I'm writing a preview of the ALCS instead. Enjoy :)

On Friday evening, the Los Angeles Angels and New York Yankees will begin the ALCS in the Bronx. These two clubs have been the best in the American League since the All-Star break and there is no reason to believe that this match-up will be anything short of a classic.

The Angels have been an inspirational story this season after they lost teammate Nick Adenhart in a tragic drunk driving accident back in April. They came together as a family, as they carry their fallen teammate's jersey as they have all season on their journey to this series, and are now playing their best baseball at the right time.

Ex-Yankee Bobby Abreu and Kendry Morales have been pleasant surprises for the Angels.
Abreu, who donned the pinstripes last season, has done everything and more than the Angels could ask for in a guy that every other team in the league thought was washed up and passed on during the off-season. His plate discipline and .390 OBP has had a profound effect on others in the lineup as the Angels have become a more patient team at the plate. Surprisingly, Abreu also tallied 30 steals in the regular season (he may be the fattest guy in history to do so but I'll have to check that) making him a perfect fit in Mike Scioscia’s run and gun offense. When the Angels fell short in their pursuit to re-sign Mark Teixeira, they turned to Morales. He did not disappoint. In the regular season, the switch-hitter exploded with a .306 AVG, 34 HR, and 108 RBIs, rivaling Teixeira’s .292, 39 HR, 122 RBI Yankee debut season for roughly 1/25th of the price.

The rest of the Angels lineup may not be loaded with All-Star names but is formidable. Chone Figgins has learned from the patient Abreu, as he found a way to get on base at a higher clip this season. He reached on walks 101 times during the regular season, leading to 114 runs scored and an OBP of .395, a nice lift from his .367 2008 level. Torii Hunter, Vladimir Guerrero, Juan Rivera, and Mike Napoli stabilize the middle of the order and Erick Aybar is as good as they come in the ninth hole. The bottom line is, there is not a weakness in the Angels lineup.

The Red Sox walked Hunter in the ninth inning of the deciding Game Three Sunday, and Guerrero’s free-swinging tendencies were rewarded with a first-pitch, game-winning single. While he’s not the intimidating force that he was in years past, Guerrero can still punish mistakes. And when he does, there’s likely to be an Angel or two on base ahead of him.

You are not going to find a weakness on the mound either. John Lackey shutdown Boston in Game 1 of the ALDS and he will get the ball in Game 1 against the Yankees. Joe Saunders will take the hill for Game 2. Jered Weaver will start Game 3 in Los Angeles, and like Lackey, seemed to enjoy the spotlight against the Red Sox in the ALDS where he pitched 7 1/3 innings, giving up one run on two hits and striking out seven. Mid-season acquisition Scott Kazmir will face his former division foes in Game 4; in his career, Kazmir has put up a 2.42 ERA against the Yankees, with 55 Ks in 52 IP.

A lot has been made about Joe Girardi’s decision for the Yankees go with a three-man rotation in the ALCS against the Angels. Let’s take a close look at how the Angels hitters stack up against the likes of CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Andy Pettitte. (stats courtesy of the Elias Sports Bureau)

Vs. Sabathia (Career)

Figgins – (5/16, 3BB), 1 HR, 2 SO, .313 AVG
Abreu – (3/9) .400 OBP
Hunter – (20/68), 17 RBI, .294 AVG, .351 OBP, .544 SLG
[Note: Hunter has 74 Plate Appearances against Sabathia – 2nd most against any pitcher]
Guerrero – (3/15), 3 SO
Rivera – (3/11), 2 RBI, 1 SO
Morales – (3/9), 2 RBI, 0 SO
Kendrick – (8/12), .667 AVG, .692 OBP, 1 SO
Mathis – (1/5), 1 BB
Aybar – Never Faced Sabathia
*Iztruis – (5/10), .583 OBP
*Napoli – (3/9), 1 HR, .500 OBP

*Probably will not start.

Besides Vladimir Guerrero, this Angels line-up has fared pretty well against the Yankee ace. It will be interesting to see if Angels manager Mike Scioscia will go with Jeff Mathis over Mike Napoli. Mathis has been John Lackey’s main guy behind the plate, so I expect him to start Game 1, despite Napoli’s minimal success against Sabathia. Howie Kendrick will likely get the nod over Maicer Izturis because of his success against lefties, and in particular, CC Sabathia, who may be called upon to start Games 1, 4, and 7 in this series. "I'm hearing a lot of rain. We may face Sabathia seven times," Scioscia joked.

In 2009, the Angels went 17 for 53 against Sabathia. This was good for a .321 AVG and .379 OBP.

Vs. Burnett (Career)
Figgins – (5/12), .417 AVG
Abreu – (20/64), .313 AVG, .416 OBP, 11 RBI
[Note: Abreu has 77 Plate Appearances against Burnett – 5th most against any pitcher]
Hunter – (2/23), .087 AVG, SO 7
Guerrero – (9/42), .214 AVG, 2 HR, .735 OPS
Rivera – (2/8), .400 OBP
Morales – (1/6), .167 AVG, 4 SO
Izturis – (4/16), 2 BB .333 OBP
Napoli – (4/11), 2 HR, .417 OBP, .909 SLG
Aybar – (1/5)
*Kendrick – (4/11), .364 AVG, 3 RBI
*Mathis – (2/5)

*Probably will not start.

While Figgins and Abreu have had some success at the top of the order against Burnett, the Angels have had their struggles in the heart of the order over their respective careers. However, if the Angels get runners on base there will be a lot of steals and manufactured runs because Burnett is very slow to the plate and the Angels have too much speed. Also, in 2009 the Angels were 15 for 49 against the Yankee right-hander, with a .306 AVG and a .352 OBP.

Vs. Pettitte (Career)
Figgins – (5/18), 3 RBI, .381 OBP
Abreu – (6/21), .375 OBP, 6 SO
Hunter – (8/33), 1 HR, 10 RBI, .242 AVG
Guerrero – (9/23), .391 AVG, .939 OPS
Rivera – (2/11), 1 HR, 4 RBI
Morales – (0/5), 1 SO
Kendrick – (4/16), all singles
Napoli – (5/9), .556 AVG, .636 OBP
Aybar – (7/16), .438 AVG, .471 OBP
*Izturis – (2/4)
*Mathis – (3/9), .333 AVG

*Probably will not start

Figgins, Abreu, and Guerrero have all had pretty good career numbers against the Yankee vet. While Morales has yet to figure Pettitte out in five career at bats, keep in mind that he batted .296 against left-handed pitchers in the regular season.

In 2009, the Angels went 21 for 65 against Pettitte, a .323 AVG. Their OBP was .397.

Although this Yankee three-man rotation dominated the Minnesota Twins in the ALDS, they struggled mightily against the Angels all year. Collectively, the Angels hit .317 against Sabathia, Burnett, and Pettitte. These are the reasons why I believe that the Angels will move onto the World Series despite the Yankees being the favourites to win.

Peace and Much Love To Ya :) (except to all the Yankees fans like Franny :P)

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Yanks/Twins ALDS Preview

First of all let me apologize for the absence I have gotten lazy since school started but I'll try to post more, promise. Second the baseball playoffs have started and I kinda want to preview the division series for every one, so I'll start in the AL with the Yankees facing the Twins.

Why The Yankees Could Win The ALDS

The Yankees head into the postseason with the best record in baseball as winners of 103 games, having outscored their opponents by exactly one run per game. They also are matched up against theonly team that did not defeat them in 2009. Furthermore, the Yankees haven't won a playoff series since 2004 when they last faced Minnesota in October.

All of those things bode well, even if the Twins won 17 of 21 games including a 12-inning instant classic in Tuesday's one-game playoff against Detroit to get in to the post-season.

The first thing that anyone ever thinks about when looking at the Yankees is the power and depth of their lineup. New York features eight hitters with an OPS of .850 or better, while Minnesota has just three such hitters (not including the injured Justin Morneau). That is the kind of lineup that Carl Pavano (former Yankee bust), Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn will struggle with once it turns over.

Unlike previous seasons, the Yankees' offense will not rely so heavily on Alex Rodriguez to deliver in clutch situations as he will share the similar pressure in the middle of the lineup with fellow teammate Mark Teixeira.

New York's starting pitching has two power pitchers in Game 1 and 2 with CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett. Sabathia struggled in April, but finished the season with a 3.37 ERA and had a 1.29 mark with a 9.26 K/9 rate during the month of September. That is the kind of a true frontline starter that the Yankees haven't had the luxury of throwing out there in Game 1 of a playoff series the past few years when the best they could throw out was an aging Randy Johnson, Mike Mussina, Kevin Brown or the hittable Chien-Ming Wang.

Burnett is capable of being the best pitcher alive on certain outings, but he has always been inconsistent and had a 4.33 ERA in just under 100 second half innings. Andy Pettitte will start Game 3 and though he had a 3.31 ERA since the break, he has struggled in his past few starts. Joba Chamberlain's struggles have made Pettite going with Sabathia and Burnett in the five-game set a relative no-brainer.

The Yankees' bullpen is deeper and more dominant than it has been with Phil Hughes and now Joba Chamberlain setting up Mariano Rivera.

Other than the clear edge New York has at the plate, they are also vastly superior defensively. The Yankees were ranked 18th in fielding percentage compared to the 27th ranked Twins.

Why The Twins Could Win The ALDS

This would be a monumental upset, but in no way is it impossible. After a classic game in the final regular season contest at the Metrodome, the Twins earned the AL Central crown and now will go to New York to face baseball’s best team. The Twins had less than 16 hours to prepare for the Yankees and will head to the Bronx with a fatigued staff and without one of their franchise players in Justin Morneau, but don’t count out Minny just yet.

Over the past decade in postseason baseball, the team that comes in with the most momentum usually lifts a few eyebrows. In 2007, the Rockies won 14 out of 15 games, including the famous Matt Holliday play-in game to clinch the NL Wild-Card. From there they cruised to the World Series. This Minnesota Twins club has the ability to make a similar run. The Twins started September seven games behind the Detroit Tigers, but won 17 out of their final 21 to earn a berth. They play the game with nothing to lose and everything to win.

Contrary to belief, the Twins can actually score with the Yankees. In the regular season, they were fourth in the American League in runs scored with 817. Denard Span (97), Joe Mauer (94), Michael Cuddyer (93) and Orlando Cabrera (83) were all in the top 40. Minnesota puts the ball in play and makes things happen. They were third in the AL in sacrifice hits in the regular season. They do the little things, and they do them well.

Mauer easily was the best hitter in the AL this season and will almost certainly win the MVP. He batted .365 in the regular season with an OBP of .444. He is as dangerous as hitter as anyone in the game and if the Yankees pitch around him, they will be forced to give Kubel and Cuddyer some pitches to hit.

The lineup is peaking at the right time. Even after Morneau went down, the Twins have averaged nearly six runs a game. Delmon Young was just named the co-player of the week. Nick Punto is a pesky hitter at the end of the lineup who battles every time he is in the box and Carlos Gomez is a guy that can come off the bench and steal a huge base late in the game.

Minnesota’s staff may be a little worn-down for the series, but manager Ron Gardenhire will take it game-by-game. He will not force Carl Pavano to go six if he can see that he doesn’t have his stuff early in the game.

The Yankees don’t have a cakewalk here no matter how exhausted you may think Minnesota’s club is. You just don’t get tired at this time of year. After losing all seven regular season contests with the Yankees, the Twins are out their to prove to the world again that they belong.

Peace and Much Love To Ya :)

*Note: Game 1 was played today and the Yankees won 7-2 to take a 1-0 series lead