The Toronto Blue Jays are arguably the most surprising team in baseball right now. They have ridden a hot start to a 20-12 record, the best in the AL and second in the majors behind the Dodgers. I, for one, was one of the early naysayers who assumed that the Jays would have yet another mediocre season leading to a predictable fourth place in the Al East now that the Tampa Bay "Don't Call Us Devil" Rays have emerged as contenders. I was content that this was a rebuilding year for the Jays and that before it could get better it would have to get worse and I was hoping that they could somehow magically make a third place finish. However, it's May now, and the team still looks as competitive as ever, winning close games and showing pessimists, like me, a thing or two.
The question all Jays fans have on their mind is this: will the hot streak continue, or is this just a mirage? It's hard to say. There's been a lot of things going the team's way in 2009, and it's difficult to decipher what's for real and what's not. I do know this though the Jays need a lot of things to go their way this season if the want to play baseball in October. So here are some things that need to continue:
Roy Halladay's Dominance
The Doc is having another spectacular season. With a K:BB ratio of nearly 8:1, he's well on his way to another run at the Cy Young.
Scott Richmond's Solid Starts
While I do think Richmond will settle in as a solid 4th or 5th starter, that 2.67 ERA is due to inflate.
Aaron Hill's MVP Like Play
Hill's at an age where giant steps forward with the bat happen, and while his current .352 clip is a tad high, I wouldn't be at all surprised if he was still hitting .320 in September. After all, his best friend in the majors is Dustin Pedroia (reigning AL MVP) and who's to say Hill can't take the crown of MVP away from him.
Scott Downs' ERA & Jason's Frasor's ERA
Downs has quietly become the Jays best reliever over the past few seasons, and in 2009 he's taken it to a completely new level. In 15.1 innings, he's struck out twenty and is yet to walk a batter. Frasor already has four wins, and he's been pitching well, but I foresee a spike in his walk rate sometime soon; the one walk he's allowed in his 11.1 innings doesn't match up with his career numbers.
Adam Lind's & Marco Scutaro's Power Surge
Lind had a fantastic minor league career, but hadn't put it all together in the majors until now. Now that he's drawing some walks and not hacking at everything that moves, the power should be here to stay. I love the patience Scutaro's been showing in the lead-off spot, but as someone with a career high of nine home runs, I don't see him hitting the 20-25 that he's on pace for.
Kevin Millar's & Jose Bautista's Solid Bench Production
Millar's a seasoned vet who's always had a potent bat. This potency is magnified in short spurts off the bench, where he should continue to hit. Bautista's valuable to have as a utility man, but Bautista's career .242 batting average leads me to believe that the .326 he's currently at can't be sustained.
Will the Jays continue to play this well? While there are some players that are likely to regress over the course of the season there are also some players who are likely to improve. There is a chance that with a less injury-riddled rotation and some improvement from guys like Rios and Snider, the good could help cancel out the bad. Which is to say that AL East, watch out. The Jays might just be in this for the long haul.
Peace and Much Love To Ya :)
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